983
FXUS63 KUNR 012335
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
535 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW TO THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK
-A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE REGION THROUGH WED, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN
SOME AREAS
-TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEK
-WARMING UP NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
POTENT PAC UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED DEEP NORTHEAST PAC LOW
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT UNSETTLED FLOW, BRINGING A SERIES OF IMPULSES
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PAC SYSTEMS INTO THE REGION, WITH THE
STRONGEST ONE AFFECTING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO WED. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS BROAD LIFT DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSING TROUGH. THE LIFT WILL BE IN
ENHANCED POCKETS VIA SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE WAVES, SIMILAR TO THE
WAVE FROM THIS MORNING. RAIN HAS OR WILL CHANGE TO SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS AT FIRST, WITH THE MAIN
CHANGE OVER FROM CAA ON THE PLAINS ENSUING THIS EVENING. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT MOST AREAS AS THE BULK OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE FA, WITH JUST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
SUPPORTING PRECIP AFTER THIS EVENING, OUTSIDE OF SCENTRAL SD.
GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS WITH SOME OF THE SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND A LACK OF CONVECTIVE SIGNAL, EXPECT THAT SNOW
RATIOS WILL RANGE FROM 5:1 TO 12:1. THIS PUTS 3-6 INCHES IN PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS, WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS NW SD, WITH
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS CONFINED TO RIDGES ON THE PLAINS. SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF TIME FOR
THE BEST SNOWFALL. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WED, BECOMING BREEZY ON THE SD PLAINS. DRY AIR WILL ALSO
QUICKLY WORK INTO THE REGION WED WITH PRECIP ENDING DURING THE
DAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. AFTER WED, THINGS DRY OUT WITH
JUST SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THUR AND FRIDAY AS SEMI-UNSETTLED
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. TEMPS WILL ALSO MODERATE SOME BY THE END
OF THE WEEK, BUT STILL REMAIN AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. WARMER
WEATHER DOES LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM MDT TUE APR 1 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AS AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW PERSIST. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ024.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR SDZ025.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ057.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13
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