772
FXUS63 KUNR 240520
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SEMI-ZONAL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BRING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM EXPECTED THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
-TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE IN THE PERIOD AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERS
OVER THE REGION
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
PERTURBED SEMI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AS A SERIES
OF IMPULSES CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE PAC. A COUPLE STRONGER
SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THUR AND SUNDAY-MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SOME SNOW AS WELL AS GULF MOISTURE
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY NORTH INTO THE REGION. POSITIVE THETA-E ADV
ONGOING ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TS ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. POS THETA-E ADV WILL RAMP UP
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW, ESP
LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE
THUR AS THE BULK OF LIFT AND MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION,
ESP ACROSS THE NW FA. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO CHANGE
TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BH, WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN TO SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND NW SD.
EXPECTING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE BH THROUGH THUR. SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO STICK TO PAVED ROADS
GIVEN WARM GROUND TEMPS. RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST AND TAPER OFF
LATER THUR, WITH LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE OFF/ON THUR NIGHT AS LL
SATURATION REMAINS IN PLACE WITH EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL LIFT. SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A
DECENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK RIGHT OVER THE
REGION. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY
ON THE SD PLAINS AS THE WARM SECTOR PUSHES IN TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SD. DEFINITIVELY CONDITIONAL, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON. UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS MOST PLACES. AS FOR TEMPS, EXPECT COOLER CONDS
THUR, WITH A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND, AS TEMPS SURGE INTO THE
70S BY SAT, WITH 70S WEST AND MID 80S EAST SUNDAY. COOLER TO START
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE REGION AND
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD. ISOLATED TS MAY OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWEST SD THROUGH 12Z. SOME SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK
HILLS WITH LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST SD BY SEE SNOW
OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
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