439
FXUS63 KUNR 241706
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1106 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED UPPER FLOW WILL BRING NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
- TEMPERATURES WARM UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DROPPING BACK TO
SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FA, WITH A DISTURBANCE OVER THE ROCKIES. GULF MOISTURE
INJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND POS THETA-E ADVECTION HAVE
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
MOISTURE ACCUMULATIONS. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 OR MORE QPF ARE
WIDESPREAD 50% OR MORE ACROSS THE FA, WITH MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN
WY, NW SD, AND THE BLACK HILLS IN THE 80-100% RANGE. PROBABILITIES
FOR 0.5 OR MORE QPF HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL OF 80-100% FOR AREAS
BETWEEN BELLE FOURCHE AND BUFFALO. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF AN INCH OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION BLACK
HILLS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE THE REST OF THE FA CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT RAIN, OR POSSIBLY A MIX LATE TONIGHT WITH NO
ACCUMULATIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY TAPER OFF LATE
TONIGHT, HOWEVER UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND.
BRIEF UPPER RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL BRING WARMING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLY EVEN SOME LOW 80S BY
SUNDAY. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION RETURNS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER LOW OVER SW CONUS EJECTS UP INTO
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY ON THE SD PLAINS AS THE WARM SECTOR
PUSHES IN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD. UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND TRANSIENT LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AS RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SE
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