145
FXUS63 KUNR 242303
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
503 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-UNSETTLED AND WET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
-COOL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND,
SEASONAL NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
MEAN TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SUPPORT UNSETTLED
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND A SERIES OF WEEK IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE
REGION, WITH A DEEPER TROUGH EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN
AND A FEW ISOLATED TS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE FA, WITH SOME HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW IN THE BLACK HILLS. MAIN ROUND OF LIFT WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH RAIN (AND ANY HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW) TAPERING OFF TO DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES LATER TONIGHT. SFC
RIDGING COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL SUPPORT LOW
LEVEL LIFT WITH ONGOING MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN MOST PLACES THROUGH FRIDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR
NE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED. SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SW THIRD TO HALF WHERE SOME WEAK LIFT AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT WITH A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS, WITH DOWNSTREAM POS THETA-E ADV. THIS WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES SAT AS POS THETA-E ADV/WAA CONTINUES. PRESSURE
FALLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SAT, SUPPORTING GUSTY SE
WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL ADV LEVEL WINDS OVER NW SD. THIS SYSTEM WILL
SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH THE WARM SECTOR SPREADING OVER THE REGION.
THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S,
WARMEST ON THE SD PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND BULK LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. WRAP AROUND RAINS (HIGH ELEVATION SNOW)
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF, WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WHERE
LINGERING INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. THINGS DRY OUT SOME THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATER
IN THE WEEK AS MORE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE FLOW, WITH SEASONAL
TEMPS EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 458 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS AND TRANSIENT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING IN RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ON
THE WESTERN SD PLAINS; HOWEVER, IFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE BH/SW SD/NE WY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...POJORLIE
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