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FXUS63 KUNR 251147
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
547 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- PROGRESSIVE AND UNSETTLED FLOW OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH WEAK
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FA.
SURFACE CHARTS DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MT AND A LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN WY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWS LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS
AROUND THE BLACK HILLS INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD.
TEMPERATURES SIT IN THE 30S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO
SOUTHWESTERN SD WHERE MODELS SHOW THE BETTER FORCING AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. BETTER
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. STRONG WAA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S FOR
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE INJECTING
INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTIVE MODELS SUPPORT
MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR THAT COULD BRING SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE FA LATER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST
OVER THE ROCKIES. NAEFS PERCENTILES PUT THE FA IN THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR QPF ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WHILE LREF PROBABILITIES
FOR 0.25" OF 24HR/QPF SHOW WIDESPREAD 50-70 PERCENT. LONG RANGE
MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A DRY PERIOD TOWARDS MID-WEEK, BUT ANOTHER
IMPULSE MAY IMPACT THE FA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED, AFTER OUR WARM SUNDAY, ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THAT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK
TO SEASONABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING DUE TO
RAIN/FOG/LOW CLOUDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD LINGER OVER
FAR WESTERN SD/BLACK HILLS AND NORTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...13
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