851
FXUS63 KUNR 252339
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
539 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS SATURDAY
-STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY-MONDAY,
BRINGING POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY, WITH GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN MOST PLACES
-DRIER AND SEASONAL NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
A PATTERN SHIFT TO MEAN WESTERN CONUS TOUGHING AFTER. EASTERLY
FLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE SFC HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. EXPECT THAT LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT, ESP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK
HILLS AS MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES OTHERWISE, A WEAK
EMBEDDED IMPULSE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SAT AND
MAY SUPPORT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POS THETA-E ADV ENSUING.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DIG INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SAT.
PRESSURE FALLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SAT, SUPPORTING
GUSTY SE WINDS, WITH POTENTIAL ADV LEVEL WINDS OVER NW SD. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY WITH THE WARM SECTOR SPREADING OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT VERY WARM TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S, WARMEST ON THE SD PLAINS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SUFFICIENT CAPE AND BULK
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. TS DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL
AND WILL HINGE ON THE SCOPE AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE RETURN. THERE
IS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE THAT WILL WRAP INTO THIS SYSTEM, WHICH
WILL TEND TO FAVOR A GOOD SETUP FOR APPRECIABLE RAINS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WRAP AROUND RAINS (HIGH ELEVATION SNOW) WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST. RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY IN THE NORTHWEST HALF, WITH
CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE VIGOROUS DEFORMATION ZONE. THINGS DRY
OUT SOME THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEK AS MORE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE FLOW, WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED. GIVEN EXPECTED WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, A PERIOD OF VERY WARM TEMPS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
PREDOMINATELY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KRAP AND KGCC TERMINALS THROUGH 15Z.
EXPECT PERIODS OF -DZ THROUGH 06Z AT KRAP TERMINAL. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS BY 19Z BUT STRONG SOUTH WINDS
ARE PROGGED TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL BEGINNING AROUND 15Z WHERE
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 40 KNOTS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...WOODWARD
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