869
FXUS63 KUNR 281141
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
541 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS MIDWEEK, WITH A WARMING TREND LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST SD, WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHWEST SD. A COLD FRONT LIES JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CWA ACROSS EASTERN MT TO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL WY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER UT THAT IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS NOTED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO MT, ALSO MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MANY
AREAS ACROSS WESTERN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD RECEIVED SOME
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SO FAR, WITH SOME AREAS OF NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD SEEING 1 TO OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. SKIES ARE MAINLY
CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST SD AT
THIS TIME, AS ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS HAS EXITED SOUTH CENTRAL
SD. TEMPS ARE MILD THIS MORNING, MOSTLY UPPER 40S AND 50S, WITH
VARIABLE AND MOSTLY LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT STRONGER
NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IT WILL
INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION,
PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN TODAY GENERALLY FALLING FROM NORTHEAST WY TO THE NORTHERN BLACK
HILLS AREA AND NORTHWEST SD, WHERE HREF PROBS FOR A HALF INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL TODAY ARE AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT, WITH AN INCH OR
MORE AT 20 TO OVER 50 PERCENT. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO MOSTLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SD PLAINS, WHERE SOME
GUSTS TO OVER 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS TO AROUND
70 OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY COULD SWITCH RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER BLACK HILLS,
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 6000 FEET. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. PCPN WILL EXIT THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING, AS THE SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS.
MAINLY SUNNY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S. A COUPLE OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES AND A COOL FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN US AND EVENTUALLY MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS
LATER THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS. RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS
EVENING, AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-031-073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...13
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