334
FXUS63 KUNR 281856
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1256 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE REGION OVER THIS EVENING
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURNS MID-WEEK
- WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM MDT MON APR 28 2025
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SECONDARY BOUNDARY RUNNING SW/NE THAT
CUTS THE FA IN HALF THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER, WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF THE REGION, MID
30S OVER THE BLACK HILLS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS OCCURRING.
HIGH PWATS OF 200-250 PERCENT HAVE ALLOWED ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO
FALL, WITH MANY REPORTS OF 1-3 INCHES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
ANOTHER QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS THIS EVENING, AND
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UPWARDS OF AN ADDITIONAL INCH MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS OCCURRING. THE HIGHEST ELEVATION BLACK HILLS AREAS
COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE
EVENING.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, AS
UPPER FLOW CHANGES A BIT. UPPER MODELS DEPICT A BIT OF SPLIT FLOW,
WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE FA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE
RIDING THE FLOW COULD SPARK SOME POTENTIAL RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, BUT WITH MUCH LESS MOISTURE THAN OUR ONGOING EVENT.
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, BRINGING A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON APR 28 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FOG. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND
BEHIND THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDS WILL DEVELOP AFT 06Z WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS 12Z-15Z TUESDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-012>014-
031-073-078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...HINTZ
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