870
FXUS63 KUNR 291128
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
- WARMING UP LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST, WITH POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. CUTOFF, WEAKENED UPPER LOW IS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN AZ. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA, WITH VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH.
PATCHY FOG IS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW AREAS, ESPECIALLY PARTS
OF NORTHEAST WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS. TEMPS ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MUCH NICER WX TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPS LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S WITH WINDS
TURNING SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON, MOSTLY TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FORECAST MUCAPE OF
500 J/KG OR LESS AND MINIMAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THREAT FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS. NOT A LOT OF PCPN EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM
COMPARED TO THE LAST ONE. BEST CHANCES FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL, 30 TO 70 PERCENT ACCORDING TO LATEST HREF, WILL BE
MOSTLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY. PASSING
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS
WELL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST
WY AND THE BLACK HILLS TO THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. A
SECONDARY, WEAKER SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS ON THURSDAY COULD BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US LATE WEEK WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE ROCKIES
AND PLAINS FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND, BRINGING WARM AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE, 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND, A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN US INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES
LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT TUE APR 29 2025
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...13
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