245
FXUS63 KUNR 271123
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
523 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
-WARMER AND DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S BY THIS WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
STALLED UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WARMER AND DRIER CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST. ESE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CLOUDS,
COOL TEMPS, AND AREAS OF FOG, WITH THE BULK OF RAIN TOWARD CENTRAL
SD THIS MORNING. UNSETTLED FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION,
ALTHOUGH WITH A WANING TREND AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SHIFTS
EAST. SHOWER CHANCES TODAY WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO WESTERN SD
WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. NW FLOW
IMPULSE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH, SUPPORTING SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE SW HALF
OVERNIGHT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WED AS A ROTATING
IMPULSES WRAPS BACK INTO THE REGION, SUPPORTING CONCENTRATED LIFT
OVER THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST
TODAY AND CONTINUING WED. HOWEVER, LACK OF SHEAR AND LIMITED CAPE
WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS. EXPECT ANOTHER COOL DAY TODAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTER A WARMER AND MAINLY DRY WEEKEND (MOST PLACES), THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS COOLER TEMPS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
IFR-LIFR (LOCAL LIFR) CONDS WILL TREND TO MVFR-VFR THIS MORNING
AS HEATING ALLOWS THE BL TO MIX. ISOLD-SCT SHRA ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN SD, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SW THIRD TONIGHT
AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...JC
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