620
FXUS63 KUNR 290347
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
947 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER AND DRIER THROUGH THE WEEKEND; TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND
80S; SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
-COOLER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A
CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ANOTHER LOW AND TROUGH BEHIND THE
RIDGE, EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE SUN HAS PEAKED OUT, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 50S IN THE BLACK HILLS TO THE MID 60S WHERE THERE HAS BEEN
MORE SUN.
THE STALLED CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH WILL FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT,
ALLOWING THE UPPER RIDGE TO BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE
OR INSTABILITY, EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
DESPITE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND IN
FAVOR OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY, AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL LEAD
TO A RETURN OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHRA ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT PRESENT. GIVEN OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION, AREAS OF BR/FG REMAIN
LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING (MAINLY IN THE 06-14Z
TIME FRAME). HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LIMITING THIS
ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS TO OUR
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS. AS SUCH, FOR NOW, HAVE REMOVED MENTION
AT KRAP. HOWEVER, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF BR/FG AT
KRAP OR EVEN KGCC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE BY 15Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SMITH
AVIATION...SHERBURN
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