732
FXUS63 KUNR 290754
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
154 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
- UPPER TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD
LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI AND UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO AB/SK. RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HIGH HAS CREATED PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL SD PER NIGHTTIME RGB
LOOP.
TODAY, PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. EXPANDING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SEASONAL/NEAR GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY, COMPACT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLIPS THROUGH UPPER
RIDGE. SURFACE REFLECTION WEAK WITH MOST POPS EXPECTED TO BE WEST
OF THE CWA, PROBABLY ROOTED ON THE BIG HORNS. A FEW ECHOES MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT UNMENTIONABLE POPS OKAY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE DOMINATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND
THEN SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR SUNDAY. A WELL-TIMED TEMPERATURE PEAK
FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES PER INCREASING NBM/LREF SPREADS.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF IT SLIPS THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PROPELS DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LINGERING SHRA ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL SD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT PRESENT. GIVEN
OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION, AREAS OF BR/FG
REMAIN LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING (MAINLY IN THE
06-14Z TIME FRAME). HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LIMITING
THIS ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED MVFR TO LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS TO
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS. AS SUCH, FOR NOW, HAVE REMOVED
MENTION AT KRAP. HOWEVER, STILL CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
BR/FG AT KRAP OR EVEN KGCC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE
BY 15Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...SHERBURN
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