564
FXUS63 KUNR 291122
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
522 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
- UPPER TROUGH BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH OVER THE CWA. WATER VAPOUR LOOP HAD
LOW OVER WEST-CENTRAL WI AND UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO AB/SK. RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HIGH HAS CREATED PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL SD PER NIGHTTIME RGB
LOOP.
TODAY, PATCHY FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CWA. EXPANDING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL
RIDGE WILL SUPPORT SEASONAL/NEAR GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY, COMPACT MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE SLIPS THROUGH UPPER
RIDGE. SURFACE REFLECTION WEAK WITH MOST POPS EXPECTED TO BE WEST
OF THE CWA, PROBABLY ROOTED ON THE BIG HORNS. A FEW ECHOES MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST, BUT UNMENTIONABLE POPS OKAY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, UPPER/THERMAL RIDGE DOMINATES. HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 70S/LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND
THEN SOAR INTO THE 80S FOR SUNDAY. A WELL-TIMED TEMPERATURE PEAK
FOR THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES PER INCREASING NBM/LREF SPREADS.
MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY IF IT SLIPS THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW PROPELS DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT THU MAY 29 2025
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO PATCHY FOG EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS,
PARTICULARLY FROM KIEN-KICR WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH HE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
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