808
FXUS63 KUNR 301904
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
104 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING (15-20%)
- SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- THERE IS A CHANCE (30-70%) FOR STORMS EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT IS LIMITED BUT STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
CURRENT WV AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW FRONT/SHORTWAVE
FEATURE OVER NORTHEASTERN WY AND NORTHWESTERN SD. THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE IS LOOKING A LITTLE STRONGER AND MOVING FASTER THAN
YESTERDAY'S MODEL RUNS, THOUGH IT'S UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING TOO MUCH. 12Z SOUNDING FROM RIW AND 18Z
SOUNDING FROM UNR BOTH SHOW THAT THIS WAVE DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CHANCES
FOR PRECIP. NAM AND HRRR BOTH DEPICT SB CAPE THIS EVENING
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG CAPPING.
THEREFORE, NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POPPING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
AS THE WAVE PUSHES THROUGH, THEREFORE KEEPING SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BEING THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS SUNDAY (HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 90S).
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WILDFIRE SMOKE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY WHICH COULD IMPACT AIR QUALITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS CENTRAL SD.
CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING FASTER THROUGH
THE REGION WITH THE NAM PUSHING THE SFC COLD FRONT ENTIRELY
THROUGH SD BY 21Z MONDAY AND THE GFS LAGGING TO THE WEST SLIGHTLY.
STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS STILL APPEAR TO BE DISPLACED TO THE
WEST FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY, WHICH WILL LIMIT WIDER SPREAD
SEVERE POTENTIAL. AXIS OF BEST SB/ML CAPE HAS PUSHED FURTHER EAST
WITH THE FRONT, WHICH MAY ALSO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED DRIER IN TERMS OF PRECIP, WITH THE LREF
DEPICTING 40-60% CHANCES FOR TOTAL PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EXCEEDING 0.1" ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN WY. THE
HIGHEST PROBS ARE TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH 70-90+% PROBS FOR
QPF 0.1+" MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NBM PROBS ARE SHOWING THE SAME
TREND.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MORE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED -TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. UPPER-
LEVEL SMOKE/HAZE IS EXPECTED TO COME CLOSER TO THE SURFACE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...POJORLIE
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