541
FXUS63 KUNR 311907
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
107 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S, AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
- CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40%) ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY SUNDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER NOT EXPECTED.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CENTERED OVER SD. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN SOUTHEASTERN SD
DUE TO THIS WEAK SYSTEM BUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS
REMAINED DRY. WILDFIRE SMOKE ADVECTING IN ON THE NORTHERLY FLOW
HAS WRAPPED AROUND THIS FEATURE WITH HAZY SKIES AND SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TOWARDS CENTRAL SD. WEATHER SHOULD BE
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS THE REGION AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SFC THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE REGION. LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN
MOVING THE SFC FRONT FASTER THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE FRONT
ENTERING NORTHEASTERN WY BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND MOSTLY THROUGH
THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY BY LATE EVENING ON SUNDAY WITH CAMS HINTING
AT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA BY 03-06Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING WHICH SHOULD PREVENT
DEEPER/STRONGER CONVECTION FROM OCCURRING.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY THROUGH THE CWA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WHILE WE MAY SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE MORNING AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, IT'S UNLIKELY WE'LL
SEE ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR SEVERE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. FURTHER
EAST, TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL LEND TO A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 5) SEVERE RISK AS MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY (SB CAPE AT
1500-3000 J/KG PER NAM) DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
STRONGEST SHEAR REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE BEST INSTABILITY, SO A
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT ISN'T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL (1+" DIAMETER) AND DAMAGING WINDS
(60+ MPH GUSTS). ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER IN TERMS
OF PRECIP, WITH THE LREF AND NAM BOTH DEPICTING 10-40% CHANCES FOR
TOTAL PRECIP MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY MORNING EXCEEDING 0.1"
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA (SOUTH CENTRAL SD IS AT 60-80%). NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY, HOWEVER,
AT THIS TIME CHANCES FOR WINDS TO EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA ARE
LOW.
AS WE ENTER THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL AND UNSETTLED FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL US. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
IMPACTS:
MODERATING TEMPERATURES (HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO 70S) WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SMITH
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