995
FXUS63 KUNR 021116
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT BRINGS ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ACTIVE NEAR THE NE
BORDER
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE/REDEVELOP
TODAY
- UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD INITIAL COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST ND TO
KPHP TO SOUTHEAST WY. WEAK LOW NEAR KPHP. 2-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
BEHIND THE FRONT FOISTING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON FOLKS. WATER
VAPOUR LOOP HAD MAIN UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AB INTO ID, BUT
LEAD SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA RESPONSIBLE FOR CLUSTER OF TSRA EARLY
THIS MORNING PER REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS. LATEST REFLECTIVITY/GLM
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MUCAPE/EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR. MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING REVOLVES AROUND UPPER
TROUGH.
TODAY/TONIGHT, UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SENDING THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 21Z AND
SECONDARY COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH 2-4MB/3HR
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND IT. QG/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH SECONDARY
FRONT SUFFICIENT TO CREATE SHRA/TS BY MIDDAY, SHIFTING SOUTH BY
EVENING. WITH INITIAL COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL BE A LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR ACTIVE TSRA OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON PER 1KJ/KG MEAN MUCAPE. BETTER
0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARRIVES BY EVENING, BUT THEN BEST JUICE IS GONE.
WILL FORGO WIND HEADLINES TODAY AS HREF CHANCES >45MPH WIND GUSTS
VERY LOW AND NBM <50%. HAVEN'T STRAYED FAR FROM GUIDANCE FOR MAXT
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 30F SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST.
TUESDAY, DRIER AIR IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST SHOWERS
FROM DEVELOPING, EXCEPT IN/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS COURTESY OF THE
TERRAIN. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, COMPACT SHORTWAVE ZIPS THROUGH
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CREATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/TS. WENT WITH
GUIDANCE FOR MAXT, BUT IF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION HANGS AROUND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, FORECAST MAY BE TOO WARM. THE REST OF
THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED PER PROGRESSIVE WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
AND PERIODIC DISTURBANCES SHUTTLING A SERIES OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT MON JUN 2 2025
THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA VIA SOUTH-CENTRAL SD EARLY
THIS MORNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY WITH INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. SHRA/TS
WILL DEVELOP TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT
OVER NORTHEASTERN WY THIS MORNING, SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN SD
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...HELGESON
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