518
FXUS63 KUNR 211926
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
126 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS AND A WIDE RANGE OF AFTERNOON
HIGHS
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS, WHILE A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW. MORNING LOW CLOUDS OVER
NORTHEASTERN WY HAVE DISSIPATED, LEAVING SKIES SUNNY ACROSS THE CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS
THE STATE. WINDS ACROSS THE CWA ARE NORTHWESTERLY 10-15 KTS, AND
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM NEAR 70 ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
SD, NORTHEASTERN WY, AND THE BLACK HILLS TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONG CAPPING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW ON SUNDAY, ALONG
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS, AS THE LOW PUSHES EASTWARD. A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, FROM THE 60S ACROSS NW SD, THE
BH, AND NORTHEASTERN WY TO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AS THE
PAC NW LOW APPROACHES, SHORTWAVE ENERGY COULD HELP SPARK SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAMS ARE SHOWING INITIATION
MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY/SOUTHWESTERN SD, SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG, BUT CAPE WILL BE
MINIMAL. A STRAY STRONG STORM ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING SUB-SEVERE WEATHER.
THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES INTO ND EARLY MONDAY, AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MILD
AND DRY DAY; HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY,
PUSHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON SEVERITY. ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT SAT JUN 21 2025
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHRA/TS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY/NORTHWESTERN SD. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 09Z
AND OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ046-047-049.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...POJORLIE
AVIATION...MLS
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