058
FXUS63 KUNR 270313
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
913 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL (QUARTER SIZE OR LARGER) AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
- VERY WARM TO HOT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 90S FOR MOST.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH CU DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN WY. MOST RECENT MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1000-2000
J/KG SB CAPE OVER THE BLACK HILLS INTO NORTHWESTERN SD AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY. LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL
LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY THOUGH TERRAIN INFLUENCE
CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM
OVER THE BLACK HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
OVER WY/MT, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MOST RECENT CAMS SHOW
CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN WY BY 21-22Z WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AS AN LLJ DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
SD INTO NORTHEASTERN WY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL AT
20-30KT, WHICH, WHEN COMBINED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE COULD
SUPPORT A LOCALIZED, CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT OVERNIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROF CROSSES THE REGION
TOMORROW. THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX RISK WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF
THE SFC TROF. MOST RECENT NAM RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN
THE TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND FAR
WESTERN SD TOMORROW MORNING, WHICH WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC TROF WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS WITH SFC DPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S. THIS WILL SUPPORT CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
(SB CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG) ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. 30-40KT SHEAR, FAT CAPE
PROFILES, AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR A
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S WITH VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE
SFC TROF.
ANOTHER HOT DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
NOSES BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE
90S, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
SINK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BE
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER (IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S). LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN A SOUTHEAST-TO- NORTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE BUILDING EARLY IN THE
WEEK, WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BUT MAY FAVOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 912 PM MDT THU JUN 26 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND FAR NW SD. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SD PLAINS, ESP SCENTRAL SD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...JC
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