032
FXUS63 KUNR 292031
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
231 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
- HOT WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY).
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO START THE WEEK.
OVERALL, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING THE AREA BACK TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW, THEN ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE LOCALIZED IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS OF 40 KT OR GREATER AND HAIL.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z AROUND GCC AND THROUGH 03Z AROUND
RAP. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
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