526
FXUS63 KUNR 292258
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
458 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
- HOT WITH CHANCES FOR ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY).
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS.
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TO START THE WEEK.
OVERALL, MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONAL WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR. THE UPPER RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY, TRANSITIONING THE AREA BACK TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW, THEN ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY. OVERALL, THIS PATTERN WOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK AND TO START THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 456 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SCATTERED TSRA (SOME WITH HAIL) WILL CREATE LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS/GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS THROUGH 03Z, ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SD. OUTSIDE OF STORMS AND AFTER 03Z, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SMITH
AVIATION...HELGESON
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