466
FXUS63 KUNR 040424
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1024 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF BLACK HILLS THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
WITH NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT.
- DRY AND WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH HOTTEST DAY BEING
THURSDAY.
- COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY, RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2025
500HPA TROUGH IS CURRENTLY EXITING THE EASTERN PART OF OF SD WITH
FLAT ROCKIES RIDGE TRYING TO AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD WITH A
SOUTHWARD DRAGGING WARM FRONT AND A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH. BIG
DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE DWPTS FROM WEST (MID 40S) TO EAST (MID 60S).
THE FIRST THING TO PONDER IS HOW LONG INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL EXPECTED BH STORM ACTIVITY LINGER? WHILE
THERE IS SOME 700HPA THETA-E FORCING THAT REMAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH
"BLAH" SHEAR PROFILES AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING MEAN LAYER CAPE
GENERALLY 1000 J/KG OR LESS DURING PEAK HEATING, BELIEVE THAT MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND NOT STAY TOO MUCH PAST
SUNSET.
NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF STORMS THEN SHOWS UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON 30-50KT 850HPA JET
SETTING UP ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER AS NEXT ROUND OF 500HPA IMPULSES
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO THE REGION. ENSEMBLES
ARE SHOWING 75TH PERCENTILE COMP REFLECTIVITIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM 30 TO 40 DBZ WITH PROBABILITIES OF SEEING
0.10”/HOUR RAINFALL AT 30%. ALSO OF NOTE WAS THAT THE ENSEMBLES
ARE NOW PICKING UP ON THE PROBABILITIES OF NORTHERN BH CONVECTION,
WITH MEAN CAPE VALUES AOA 1500 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES AOA 40KTS.
WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE RALLY
IN FULL SWING. HAVE OPTED TO CONSIDERABLY UP THE POPS FOR THE
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THIS, RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH 850HPA
TEMPS RESPONDING AS WELL. BY THURSDAY MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA IS 30 DEGREES C OR HIGHER, SO EXPECT SOME POSSIBLE TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT ON THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
DROPPING 850HPA TEMPS BY A MINIMUM OF 10 DEGREES AND SETTING UP
NEXT WEEKEND TO COOL COMPARED TO SEASONABLE NORMS. EXPECT SOME TS
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2025
ONGOING ISOLATED STORM OVER NORTHEASTERN WY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IMPACT THE GCC TERMINAL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. THIS STORM WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HINTZ
AVIATION...WONG
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