437
FXUS63 KUNR 061710
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1110 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SEASONALLY WARM WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY
-HOT THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND LOW 100S
-COOLER AND DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
-MAINLY DRY AND SEASONAL NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE FA WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, OFFERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS IMPULSES
ADVECT ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JUST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS
EAST ON THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING, BEING SUPPORTED BY WEAK POS
THETA-E ADV IN A PLUME OF ELEVATED MOISTURE. OTHERWISE, TODAY
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE
WILL TIME WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING, SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, BEING SUPPORTED BY POSITIVE
THETA-E ADV. SCENTRAL SD WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DEPENDING ON HOW AN EXPECTED THE LINGERING
MODIFIED SFC TROUGH WILL SET UP. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THERE WILL BE
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE CELLS GIVEN SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR IN PLACE. EXPECT
SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THERMAL RIDGE WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION THURS, SUPPORTING THE WARMEST DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD 90S AND LOW 100S EXPECTED. RH WILL DROP OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN THIRD AS DEEP LAYER MIXING OCCURS.
EXPECTING A DRY DAY THUR MOST PLACES WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE FA.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT DEEP MIXING COULD SUPPORT A
FEW VERY HIGH BASES CELLS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY INTO FAR SW
SD. OTHERWISE, STORMS COULD GRAZE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THUR
NIGHT WITH AN EXPECTED STRONG IMPULSE, HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH ATTM. ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO NW SD
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN PLACE. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER
CONDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR A FEW POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS,
ALTHOUGH THESE CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH MODELS COMING IN
DRIER EACH DAY. DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH SEASONAL TEMPS AS DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION. THINGS
REALLY DRY OUT NEXT WEEK AS THE BULK OF DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA. HOWEVER, ISOLATED STORMS WILL CERTAINLY
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AS IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S AND 90S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SMITH
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