902
FXUS63 KUNR 080507
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH HEAT INDICES 100-105F
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD
- MARGINAL TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
- SEASONALLY DRIER FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
FOR THE 20Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, RIDGING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A LARGE TROF ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY AT THE MOMENT. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WITH SOME
ISOLATED LIGHTNING HAVE JUST DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN SD.
AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG DRY LINE HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
SOUTH OF THE LINE, COMPARED TO MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 80S TO THE NORTH, TO THE LOW 100S
ACROSS SOUTHERN SD. WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE SD PLAINS, TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FROM THE BLACK HILLS AREA
INTO NORTHEASTERN WY. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE PRESENT
SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY LINE. CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS WILL
EXPIRE EARLY THIS EVENING.
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN SD WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. ANTICIPATED
STRONG STORMS OVER NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA PER LATEST CAMS. OUTFLOW FROM THESE
STORMS COULD PUSH THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA A
LITTLE QUICKER OVERNIGHT.
UPPER TROF SWINGS INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BY FRIDAY AS SURFACE COLD
FRONT SLIDES COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS, WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR 70 DEGREES IN NORTHEAST WY TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN
FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA BY THE WEEKEND AS AREA RESIDES UNDER
MAINLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND, WARMING TO THE 80S AND 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SD PLAINS FROM 06Z THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...DYE
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