183
FXUS63 KUNR 221952
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
152 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES AND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
CONTINUING TO PUSH OF TO THE EAST WITH THE BROAD TROUGH AXIS
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AXIS HAS PUSHED
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY AND HAS PUSHED THE BULK OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS
STILL POOLED WITHIN THE BLACK HILLS AS EVIDENT BY AN EXPANSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD THAT IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE BLACK
HILLS. RADAR AND VIS SATELLITE SHOW A FEW CONVECTIVE TOWERS TRYING
TO INITIATE AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE POSSIBLE OF SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PRIMARILY STICK TO THE TERRAIN AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS QUITE WEAK WITH THE EXITING TROUGH TO THE
EAST AND A BUILDING RIDGE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS PROGGED TO COME
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, SO ANY ONGOING CONVECTION TONIGHT
SHOULD COME TO AN END QUICKLY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND PER MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
USHER IN BOTH COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO SEASONAL NORMALS. A FEW MODELS HAVE SOME
WEAK DISTURBANCES COMING THROUGH THE NW FLOW THAT COULD INITIATE
SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION THE FORECAST WILL ONLY ADVERTISE ISOLATED, LOW END
(<20%) POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT FRI AUG 22 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A
DIMINISHING TREND OVERNIGHT. INCLUDED/KEPT A PROB30 GROUP AT RAP;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER AT GCC, SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF
THEIR. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 6-8KFT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT EACH TAF SITE FOR SATURDAY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15KT OR LESS WITH THE GREATEST GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WOODWARD
AVIATION...COOLEY
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