080
FXUS63 KUNR 232235
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
435 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (70S-80S).
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HILLS AND
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY (15-25%).
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-40%) ARRIVE
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE MID CLOUD DECK BURNING
OFF ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
LIGHT WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA.
UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
CONUS WITH DEEPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN
CONUS. THAT PLACES WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING ON
THE INFLECTION POINT BETWEEN THE TWO (NORTHWEST FLOW) THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS A BIT FARTHER EAST
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE MAIN
ENERGY FROM THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA (ACROSS MN); THE COMBINATION OF WAA, INCREASING LLJ AND SOME
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY HELP TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
VERY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS (15-25%) WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTERMITTENTLY FOR FAR SOUTHERN SD THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
TUESDAY. FOR COMPARISON, AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
IN THE MID 80S FOR RAPID CITY, SD AND GILLETTE, WY.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THE MID 80S (CLOSER TO OR MAYBE EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DAMPENING THE RIDGE AXIS
FOR THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY. THAT ENERGY COUPLED WITH A
RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL HELP TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA FOR BOTH DAYS AND MAYBE
EVEN LINGERING INTO NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 430 PM MDT SAT AUG 23 2025
SCATTERED TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD AFTER 05Z
TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED LCL MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...COOLEY
AVIATION...WONG
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