053
FXUS63 KUNR 250500 RRA
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1029 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK BEFORE
A WARMING TREND STARTS.
- REGION WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID-WEEK AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
-MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD 500HPA TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, WITH DEEP 500HPA 4-CORNER HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. CWA IS LOCATED IN QUICK MOVING
NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY/EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
FOR TONIGHT, THE QUESTION IS IF THERE WILL BE ANY OVERNIGHT
SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER. THERE IS A NOTED
700HPA THETA-E RIDGE THAT SLIDES QUICKLY THROUGH IN THE NW FLOW WITH
MINOR AMOUNTS OF FORCING. SOME OF THE CAMS DEVELOP SOME “POPCORN”
RETURNS ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN RESPONSE TO THIS
FORCING. MOISTURE IS AWFUL MEAGER, HOWEVER ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
PCPN PROBABILITIES OF 0.01” OR GREATER AT 15-20% ACROSS OUR SOUTH
EASTERN COUNTIES AFT 06Z, SO WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE.
FOR MONDAY, COOLISH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. OF NOTE IS THE
COOLISH TEMPS AT 700HPA (+4C) AND 500HPA (-12C). THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO HELP DEVELOP POTENTIAL LIGHT SHOWERS/TSRA OVER THE BLACK
HILLS DURING PEAK HEATING, AND THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALSO PAINTING 15-20
PROBABILITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS FOR THIS.
WITH NO SHEAR AND MEAN PWATS GENERALLY UNDER 0.75”, REALLY NOT
EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT TO COME OF IT, BUT WILL NEED TO ACCOUNT FOR
IT.
BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CARRYING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, 500HPA HEIGHTS RISE ALONG WITH INCREASING 850HPA TEMPS. A
DEVELOPING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL WORK TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE
STRENGTHENING 500HPA RIDGE...TURNING UPPER FLOW FROM NW INTO A MORE
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE DESERT SW MONSOONAL MOISTURE
TO WORK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH IN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AND
EASTWARD ORIENTED BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE, THINGS WILL BECOME
MORE UNSETTLED HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1027 PM MDT SUN AUG 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HINTZ
AVIATION...WONG
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