100
FXUS63 KUNR 251057
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
457 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM THIS WEEK.
- MAINLY DRY TODAY AND TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS AND NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER IN
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE END OF WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF
EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CREATING FAIRLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS, WITH A
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING.
TEMPERATURES AT 08Z ARE COOL, WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND 50
WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, AS A WEAK WAVE CLIPS THE
AREA. THESE SHOWERS, WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID-MORNING. OVERALL, IT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD DAY TODAY, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS OR ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PORTION OF THE PINE RIDGE. WITH NO SHEAR, LIMITED CAPE, AND BELOW
AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER, KEPT POPS MINIMAL.
FOR TONIGHT, ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AS
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK LLJ MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. AGAIN, WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE, COVERAGE WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP TO SEASONAL NORMALS BEGINNING ON
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK-DOWN AND SLIDE EASTWARD,
CENTERING THE THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING, OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 453 AM MDT MON AUG 25 2025
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO STRATUS WILL OCCUR OVER THE BLACK
HILLS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BEFORE 18Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND MOST OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SMITH
AVIATION...SMITH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page