052
FXUS63 KUNR 280010
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
610 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
CURRENT WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE NEW ENGLAND REGION, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS A NARROW RIDGE SITS OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING DOWN INTO SOUTHEASTERN WY.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FA,
WITH RADAR SHOWING SOME RETURNS DEVELOPING IN NORTHEASTERN WY NEAR
THE BOUNDARY.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. BOUNDARY AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD, INCREASING STORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING
THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD WHERE THE BETTER
FORCING IS PROGGED. SOME AREAS OF MODEST CAPE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE, HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO SHEAR OBSERVED AND FORECASTED, SO VERY
LOW CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS TODAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE THURSDAY, AS WAVE TRAVERSES SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
MESSY OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, AS THE NARROW
RIDGE FLATTENS INTO NORTHWEST FLOW, WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO THE
1-1.5 RANGE AS RETURN MOISTURE MOVES IN. UPPER FLOW IS NOT
STRONG, AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR
SHOWER/STORMS DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS UPPER RIDGE
TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MAY SEE A SLIGHT WARM
UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN, BUT OVERALL
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 558 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY INTO PORTIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. AN INCREASE
OF STORM COVERAGE (SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS) IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SONNENFELD/CALDERON
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