025
FXUS63 KUNR 101954
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
154 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY
-ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN THIS WEEKEND MOST PLACES
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND. WEAK
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION AHEAD
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SUPPORT DAILY ISOLATED SHOWER/TS CHANCES
THROUGH FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ANY
STRONGER CELLS. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE MAIN BATCH OF LSA AND FORCING SPREADING OVER THE REGION. THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE BEST OVERLAP OF FORCING AND MOISTURE STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH FORECAST MODELS WOBBLING ON THE LOCATION OF
DEFORMATION ZONE LIFT AND DRY SLOTTING. THE 12Z NAM IS THE
FURTHEST SOUTH AND WEST WITH THE HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS OVER THE FA.
HOWEVER, MOST OTHER MODELS KEEP THE HIGHER PRECIP NUMBERS NORTH
AND EAST OF MOST OF THE AREA. SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY ALSO
OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FOOTHILLS. COOLER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
WITH ALL THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS AROUND, BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH IF
ANY COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH SEASONAL TEMPS CONTINUING.
THINGS DRY OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPS,
BUT ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK,
SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, RESULTING IN GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AROUND 20Z ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING, AND SHIFT INTO
WESTERN SD DURING THE EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SMITH
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