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FXUS63 KUNR 142334
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
534 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS, WILL TAPPER OFF THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS MONDAY.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
LATEST SATELLITE AND SURFACE ANALYSIS (1:13 PM MDT) SHOWS A
WEAKENING 500MB CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH AN ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
CLOUD COVER REMAINS EXTENSIVE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING 700MB THETA-E
SUBSIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO ERODE CLOUD DECKS FROM WEST TO EAST,
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN
THAT A GRADUAL END TO ONGOING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH LOWERED POPS DOWN
TO AROUND 20%.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN WITH WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES
JUMPING TO AROUND 20 CELSIUS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL WARM,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING HIGHS COULD EXCEED 85F. THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER 500MB TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND. INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH THE RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES
INCREASE POP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH 40-60% CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND COOLER
WITH TEMPERATURES RETREATING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FOR MUCH OF MID-WEEK ONWARD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD INTO MONDAY EVENING WITH AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A MENTION IN THE
TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
COULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WOODWARD
AVIATION...MELO
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