961
FXUS63 KUNR 151121
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
521 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-WARMER TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS
EVENING
-COOLING TREND INTO MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR RAIN
-DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP BY THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LOW
TAKES AIM AT THE REGION. SEMI-BLOCKED PATTERN WILL DEVELOP BY MID
WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY MIGRATES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND A SHARP RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN NOAM. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN STILL
TO BE DETERMINED. THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN IS HANDLED POORLY IN
FORECAST MODELS AS THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW TENDS TO BE HIGHLY
VARIABLE. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND
RESULTANT SHOWERS. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE BL MIXES
OUT DEEPLY AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. INVERTED V
PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY LATER IN THE DAY, WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST WY FIRST, SPREADING EAST INTO WESTERN SD BY EVENING. DRY
LL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGER CELLS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN 2/3.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP GIVEN HIGH BASED NATURE OF
CELLS. CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND WANE OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE SFC TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH THE FA. COOLER TUES MOST AREAS,
EXCEPT FOR SCENTRAL SD WHERE 80S ARE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. UPPER
TROUGH WILL MEANDER INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWER AND STORMS TUES AFTERNOON INTO WED, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES WED ACROSS THE FA. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE BEST OVERLAP
OF LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED AND
WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE IN LATER MODEL RUNS. HENCE, LOW CONFIDENCE
REMAINS PER QPF DETAILS, PARTICULARITY THE AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST
NUMBERS WILL BE. SOME PLACES WILL LIKELY SEE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN
ONCE AGAIN. THINGS DRY OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 518 AM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF ANY TS. WINDS WILL VEER NW BEHIND
A SFC TROUGH THIS EVENING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...JC
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