562
FXUS63 KUNR 031719
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1119 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY
-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY
-A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN, WIND, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND
-GRADUAL WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK AFTER MONDAY, WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST AND PHASE WITH A DEEP
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN,
BREEZY WINDS, AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATER THIS WEEKEND. THERMAL
RIDGE IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OTHER THAN A FEW CIRRUS. EXPECT HIGHS TODAY INTO THE 90S ON
THE PLAINS, WITH A FEW AREAS EAST OF THE BH INTO THE UPPER 90S,
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR EARLY OCTOBER. BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TODAY. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND
PHASE WITH A DEEP SOUTHERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH AS A PLUME OF
PAC MOISTURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION, FORCING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA SAT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS
NORTHEAST WY TO AROUND 90 AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN PHASING AND
OVERALL SLOWING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION, THE SFC FRONT WILL TAKE
ITS TIME PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY TOWARD CENTRAL SD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL ENSUE DURING THE DAY
SAT WITH A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT AT FIRST, SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TS, ESP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A JET STREAK
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL BE SAT NIGHT WHEN THE BEST OVERLAPPED OF LIFT,
MOISTURE, AND CONVERGENCE SHIFTS OVER THE REGION, WITH MOST IF NOT
ALL OF THE PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. ONGOING CAA MAY
ALLOW FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE BH. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMS GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPS AND LIMITED WINDOW FOR SNOWFALL. GIVEN STRONG FORCING AND
SLOW SYSTEM PROGRESSION PER PHASING, EXPECTING MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3 TO SEE A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN, WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NW SD UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE
OTHER IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE GUSTY NW WINDS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LIKELY
ON THE NW SD PLAINS AND IN THE LEE OF THE BH. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO SUNDAY PER CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNSTABLE PROFILES. ANY LINGERING
PRECIP MAY MIX WITH SNOW ON PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WY AND THE BH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS AND 40S IN THE
BH. UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY TUES WITH
UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND AND DRY WEATHER THEN. ANOTHER COOL FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND LOCAL EFFECTS
REMAINS AT LOW CONFIDENCE PER LARGE MODEL SPREADS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE WESTERN SD
PLAINS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY 00Z THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
WARM TEMPERATURES, DEEP MIXING, AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. RH'S WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST SD IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SD PLAINS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
OVER 30 MPH. WHEN COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS, MUCH OF NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ321-322-
324>326-329-332.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ314>317.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...JC
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