627
FXUS63 KUNR 061111
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
511 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN/SNOW WILL END LATER THIS MORNING WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY
-CHILLY TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF FROST
-WARM AND DRY THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKSIDE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST THIS MORNING. BACKSIDE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND SNOW
THIS MORNING OVER NORTHEAST WY INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SD, WITH MAINLY
LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. ANY SNOW WILL BE A DUSTING OR LESS AND BE
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE BH AND PARTS OF THE WY
PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY WITH COOL
TEMPS CONTINUING. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S AT MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN THIRD, SUPPORTING FROST. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH INTO PAC NW, WITH SUBSTANTIAL DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND AND DRY WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT, SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AN
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO TOP THE RIDGE AND SUPPORT A WEAK BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT THURS-FRI. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF LOCAL HEIGHT FALLS
AND LOCAL EFFECTS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW WITH SUBTLE IMPACT ON TEMPS.
GROWING INDICATIONS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW RETURNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. MVFR-IFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND SOUTHWEST SD. CONDS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AND CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY 07/00Z ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ001-002-078.
WY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ054>056-058>060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...JC
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