548
FXUS63 KUNR 191744
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1144 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND WARMER TODAY
- WINDY TONIGHT AND MONDAY, WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
- DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH IS CROSSING THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING,
WHILE RIDGING IS SETTING UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS RIDGE, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING,
QUICKLY ADVECTING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS NE WY THROUGH THE
SD PLAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS TO
+50MPH WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE INITIAL FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS ND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, WITH
WAVES ROTATING ACROSS THE CWA. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT VERY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NW SD, WHERE
GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER WARNING CRITERIA WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE, SO WILL JOIN
NEIGHBORING WFOS IN HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES UNTIL 12Z DATA CAN
PROVIDE A CLEARER PICTURE. SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS NW SD
DURING THE AFTERNOON, AND THERE COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HINDER THE
WARMING TREND THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. INSTEAD, HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE AND WILL ACCOMPANY DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
WILL BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE AREA TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY
IN THE EVENING TIMEFRAME. STRONG GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR, BUT ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY TEMPORARILY
BRING MVFR CONDITIONS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...DYE
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