876
FXUS63 KUNR 192309
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
509 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 45+
MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT FALL AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND CLEARING SKIES ARE SUPPORTING A WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 60S TO LOW
70S. MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS AND ATTENDANT SFC FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH THE LIMITED COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF THESE GUSTS WILL PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY
AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK
HILLS SEEING LIGHT SNOW.
UPPER LOW CROSSES NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SFC
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN SD PLAINS. IN ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG
850-700 MB WINDS OF 30-50KT COULD MIX TO THE SURFACE. NBM PAINTS
40- 60% PROBS FOR WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN SD. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING
WARNING CRITERIA TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WARNING, THOUGH WINDS COULD
CERTAINLY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE WESTERN SD PLAINS LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING (NBM HAS 60-80% PROBS FOR
GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS). WITH ALL
THIS IN MIND, OPTING TO HOIST A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS, CURING FUELS AND RHS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 50% WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN SD PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE GFDI REACHING THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM AS UNSETTLED CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION. THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME SPOTS COULD
PICK UP LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH.
UPPER LOW SLOWS AS IT EXITS THE REGION AND LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 505 PM MDT SUN OCT 19 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, REACHING KGCC
AROUND 20/03Z AND KRAP AROUND 20/05Z. A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF WIND
GUSTS FROM 30-45KT WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT ALONG WITH A FEW
SHOWERS, SOME OF WHICH MAY CONTAIN LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL THEN SUBSIDE SOME, BUT PICK BACK UP AGAIN AFTER 20/15Z WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45KT POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-072-073-077-
078.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page