798
FXUS63 KUNR 201937
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
137 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
GUSTS OF 55 TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS
- SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS
- DRY WEATHER AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC LOW CENTERED OVER MN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE
BLACK HILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, PRECIP
SHOULD MAINLY FALL AS RAIN BUT THE BLACK HILLS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP AROUND AN
INCH IF A STRONG ENOUGH SHOWER GETS GOING. THESE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO WESTERN SD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY COULD ALSO MIX DOWN HIGHER WIND GUSTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS
OF UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE, EVEN WHERE THERE'S NO HIGH WIND
WARNING. IN TERMS OF WINDS, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME STATIONS REPORTING GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD. THEREFORE MAKING NO
CHANGES TO THE WIND HEADLINES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL ROTATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
TONIGHT, EXPECTING THIS WAVE TO MAINLY IMPACT CENTRAL ND AND EAST
RIVER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
INTO CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
THANKS TO THIS WAVE, THOUGH GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL.
UPPER LOW SLOWS AS IT EXITS THE REGION AND LINGERS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE LATE WEEK WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
US. THIS SHOULD KEEP US UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2025
WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA
PLAINS, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35-40KT FROM NORTHWESTERN TO
SOUTH- CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AND TRANSIENT MVFR
CIGS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR SDZ001-002-
012>014-073-078.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ025>027-031-032-041-043-044-046-047-049-072-074-075-077.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...SE
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