566
FXUS63 KUNR 220717
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
117 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AHEAD OF
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALSO, AN UPPER LOW
IS MOVING TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ACROSS THE REGION...ASIDE
FROM A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS, CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND WESTERN SD. CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S AND 30S, AND A
FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SNUCK INTO THE UPPER 20S. QUIET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A REX BLOCKING PATTERN SETS
UP THIS WEEK...OR AT LEAST SLOWS THINGS UP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, BRINGING RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NEAR-SEASONAL
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. THEN A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THU-
SAT, AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. BY
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
70S...EVEN UPPER 70S ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPING PLAINS EAST OF THE BLACK
HILLS. TEMPS LIKE THESE ARE CLOSER TO AVERAGES IN MID SEPTEMBER. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODELS SO FAR ARE SHOWING
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION ON SUNDAY, THEN WRAPAROUND PRECIP
DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW. HOW THIS
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, BUT
EITHER WAY, THIS COULD BRING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND EVEN PORTIONS OF NE WY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...HELGESON
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