658
FXUS63 KUNR 222316
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
516 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
19Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, FAST NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE, WITH LITTLE
CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 1PM ARE
IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS A WEAK CLOSED LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS REX BLOCK WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB FROM THE 50S AND 60S, TO THE 60S AND 70S BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, AND RETURN FLOW
TAKES OVER.
AS A STRONG UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S
MOST AREAS. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20% SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF WARM
TEMPS, BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WESTERN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
LEE TROF DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SHOULD BE ONE MORE MAINLY
DRY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SATURDAY. MODELS
DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF PRECIP MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - REGARDLESS, A CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER IS ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
CHANCES FOR PRECIP, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 514 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...HELGESON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page