358
FXUS63 KUNR 230752
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
152 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
- WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
07Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL
LOWS CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT LAKES. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WITH THE
CWA SITTING UNDER DRY, NORTHWEST FLOW. SKIES OVER THE CWA ARE
CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
60S. CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY REACHING INTO THE MID 70S IN SOME AREAS. THE
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
WHERE RHS WILL DROP TO 20-30% ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WY INTO
WESTERN SD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROF.
UPPER LEVEL TROF PROGGED TO CROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH LEE
SFC TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD ON SUNDAY, THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL COME THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY WITH UNSETTLED AND COOLER WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROF CROSSES THE PLAINS.
PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2025
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...HELGESON
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