675
FXUS63 KUNR 232008
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
208 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, AND SOUTH & WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS ON SUNDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
19Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE CLOSED LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. ANOTHER WEAKER CLOSED LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, PRODUCING ABUNDANT CONVECTION. ACROSS THE
NORTH PLAINS, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE OBSERVED, WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 1PM ARE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WEAK FOUR CORNERS LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS REX BLOCK WILL PRODUCE MAINLY SUNNY
SKIES AND VERY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY, AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
AS A STRONG UPPER TROF APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 70S
MOST AREAS. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20% SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINATION OF
WARM TEMPS, BREEZY WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL PUT MOST OF THE AREA IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WESTERN UPPER TROF CROSSES THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY AS STRONG SURFACE
LEE TROF DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. SHOULD BE ONE MORE MAINLY
DRY DAY FOR SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
SATURDAY. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIP MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY - REGARDLESS, A CHANGE IN
THE WEATHER IS ON TAP EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
CHANCES FOR PRECIP, AND SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS.
UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SHIFT
TOWARDS A SOUTHERNLY PREVAILING WIND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED OCCURS AROUND THE SAME TIME
WITH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SKIES REMAIN SKC THROUGH NEARLY ALL
OF THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 132 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2025
UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AS
STRONG WESTERN TROF CROSSES THE ROCKIES. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW,
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
AND LOW RHS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING, SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AREA. CONDITIONS MODERATE LATE ON SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...15
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