098
FXUS63 KUNR 241711
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1111 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
07Z ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS MESSY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. A WEAK UPPER WAVE IS PASSING FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA WITH THE ONLY WEATHER IMPACTS CLOSE TO HOME BEING A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL SD. OTHERWISE, IT'S A CLEAR AND CALM
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 30S TO UPPER 40S.
ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ON TAP FOR WESTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN
WY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LEE TROF. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
ADVECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS SATURDAY CLIMBING
INTO THE 70S, SOME SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE BLACK
HILLS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MID 70S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WX
CONDITIONS.
UPPER TROF PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH
LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC TROF/FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 3 HR PRESSURE RISES OF 2-3 MB WILL LEND
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH. INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
STRONGER WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER TROF LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY WITH THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE LEADING TO INCREASING
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIP (RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BLACK HILLS) ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE PRECIP
WITH THE LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PAINTING PROBS OF 60-80% FOR 24-HR
QPF OF 0.01+" FOR NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAINS (0.1+") LOOK LESS PROMISING WITH LREF PROBS BEING AT AROUND
20-40% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPPER TROF WILL SWING TO THE NORTH OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE
TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH/WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
MORNING, FIRST AT KGCC THEN EVENTUALLY KRAP. WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 KNOTS. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SD
PLAINS. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 20 TO 30%. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB UP TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
OF THE BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. WINDS OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 MPH,
GUSTING FROM 25 TO 30 MPH. THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY, PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE WESTON COUNTY PLAINS INTO SOUTHWESTERN SD AND ACROSS
THE EASTERN BLACK HILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS. AFTERNOON RHS WILL
RANGE FROM 20-30% WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS A DRY FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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