795
FXUS63 KUNR 251721
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1121 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
08Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE SOUTH OVER TX/NM/OK. AN UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY PUSHING ITS
WAY ONSHORE INTO THE WEST COAST. SKIES OVER THE CWA ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR SAVE FOR SOME FOG IN SOUTHERN TRIPP COUNTY. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH DOWNSLOPING
IS KEEPING THINGS ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLACK HILLS WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE MID 50S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH RETURN
FLOW SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT FACILITATED BY DEVELOPMENT OF A
SFC LEE TROF WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX CONCERNS. MORE DETAILS IN THE FIRE WX
DISCUSSION.
STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEING IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE COINCIDE
OVER THE CWA. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY SEEING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH OR
TWO. MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH IF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS WILL SEE ANY SNOW. GFS THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW
OVER RAPID CITY EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT NAM PROFILES ARE STILL
TOO WARM. EITHER WAY, IT'S LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH
OF THE CWA WILL SEE WETTING PRECIP WITH LREF PROBS PAINTING 60-70%
CHANCES FOR 0.1+" QPF OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRANSITION TO UPPER LOW AS IT PUSHES
EAST OF THE DAKOTAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH DRIER WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID WEEK. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNAL FOR SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE
WEEK, THOUGH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY ON STRENGTH AND TIMING IS
LACKING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SKIES WILL REMAIN SKC THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN HIGH WITH A CLOUD DECK OF SCT150 DEVELOPING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD INTO SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST
WITH A SOUTHERNLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 336 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN SD INTO
NORTHEASTERN WY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
10-20 MPH AND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHILE RHS WILL DROP TO 15 TO
25% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 40 TO 60% ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN WY INTO THE BLACK HILLS AND WESTERN SD WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH
MINIMUM RHS RANGING FROM 20 TO 35% ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY INTO
WESTERN SD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS
SUNDAY.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...DZIEWALTOWSKI
FIRE WEATHER...WONG
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