247
FXUS63 KUNR 261043
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
443 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER MOVING IN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC TROF DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN WY WITH
COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER MT INTO ID. WV IMAGERY AND 09Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN US WITH
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NIGHTTIME
MICROPHYSICS SHOWS BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WY INTO WESTERN SD WHILE LOW LEVEL STRATUS/FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL SD.
ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH AFTERNOON RHS DROPPING TO 20 TO 30% AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA, ELEVATED FIRE
WX CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LEAD SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA LATE TODAY INTO
MONDAY, STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY
MONDAY. MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR ALOFT, WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN FOR MOST OF
THE AREA SAVE FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS. THE
ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR ALOFT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WILL SUPPORT
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SECONDARY SHORTWAVE SKIRTS THE REGION LATE
MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THIS COULD LEAD
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE'S STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO SPECIFICS FOR THIS SYSTEM
(TIMING, LOCATION, ETC.). HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATING ANY NOTABLE
IMPACTS FROM THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING SYSTEM ASIDE FROM
POSSIBLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND
WESTERN SD PLAINS.
SHORTWAVE DROPS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TRANSITIONS TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT DIVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. AS TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US DEEPENS LATER IN
THE WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE TO SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE ALONG THE FLOW. ANY
SPECIFICS AS TO TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE WAVES REMAINS MURKY
AS THERE'S STILL CONSIDERABLE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY AND LACK OF
MODEL CONSENSUS AMONG DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 440 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD THROUGH THIS MORNING, IMPACTING MAINLY THE KICR
TERMINAL. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL VEER NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS BY EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...WONG
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