573
FXUS63 KUNR 120929
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
229 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS 10-15F WARMER THAN
AVERAGE
- CHANCES FOR PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SD INTO NORTHEASTERN WY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
CURRENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE ROCKIES. SAVE FOR SOME THIN HIGH CLOUD COVER, SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE CWA WHICH HAS PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT
OPPORTUNITY TO SEE THE AURORA. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 40S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MEANS WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ON
TAP TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE
COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH
SOME SPOTS IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHWESTERN SD REACHING THE LOW
70S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS A TROF/UPPER
LOW MAKES ITS WAY ONTO THE WESTERN COAST. RECENT DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS TROF CONSIDERABLY WITH SOLUTIONS NOW
FAVORING A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST
OF CA AND DIVING FURTHER SOUTH. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE TROF/UPPER LOW MOVING FASTER AND
INTENSIFYING MORE. THIS HAS CHANGED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
SOMEWHAT WITH THE MAIN FRONT COMING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH MANY AREAS IN THE
CWA REACHING 70+F FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS ALSO PICK UP
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW ENSURING THE WARMEST
TEMPS IN THE CWA WILL BE IN THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS EAST
OF THE BLACK HILLS. COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING LOW END
ADVISORY LEVEL (45 MPH) IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE
SYSTEM HAS ALSO TRENDED DRIER WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIP BEING
CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN SD, NORTHEASTERN WY, AND THE NORTHERN
BLACK HILLS (LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PAINTS 30 TO 50% PROBS FOR 24-HR
QPF TO EXCEED 0.01" BY 5 PM SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1021 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEST
WINDS UNDER 20 KNOTS THIS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTER 15Z.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...WONG
AVIATION...NL
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