990
FXUS63 KUNR 140947
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
247 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY, NEAR RECORD HIGHS
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
09Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2AM ARE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MANY LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY,
PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST AREAS, WITH A COUPLE OF LOW 80S VERY
POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A FEW SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EAST AND CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
INLAND. COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR ON MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS SHEAR BUILDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND
PLAINS REGION OF SOUTHWEST SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND LINGERS
INTO THE 12-13Z TIME PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WERE ADDED TO THE
KRAP TAF ISSUANCE AS THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PERSIST AND THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT BUILDS OVERHEAD. WHEN THE JET MIXES OUT
AT KRAP TO PRODUCE THE FORECAST GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS LASTING INTO
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS FRIDAY ULTIMATELY DETERMINES WHEN THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS END SO THERE IS ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE END OF LLWS AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VERY WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY, PRODUCING DRY AND
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATE MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COOLER AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...NL
FIRE WEATHER...15
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