957
FXUS63 KUNR 141129
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
429 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND DRY TODAY, NEAR RECORD HIGHS
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
09Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS LARGE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TOPPING THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2AM ARE IN THE 40S AND
50S, WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT MANY LOCATIONS.
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD FOR ONE MORE DAY,
PRODUCING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, AND NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S MOST AREAS, WITH A COUPLE OF LOW 80S VERY
POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST TO SOUTH WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. A FEW SPRINKLES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MILD.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK NORTH AS NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
EAST AND CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
INLAND. COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OCCUR ON MONDAY FOR MOST AREAS. WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN SD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH WIND SHEAR EXITING THE KRAP AREA BY 15Z. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS SUBSIDING A LITTLE EARLIER ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
VERY WARM AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA TODAY, PRODUCING DRY AND
VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS. ACROSS SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT BY
LATE MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,
WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 35 MPH CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COOLER AND LESS BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM MST /10 AM CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ322-325-326-332>335.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...15
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