236
FXUS63 KUNR 150527
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1027 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT BRINGING LOWER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MT/ND WITH A
COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS SLICING THROUGH THE CWA. GUSTY
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN SD. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWED
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA/MT HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST. THESE FEATURES THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
TONIGHT/SATURDAY, UPPER TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT LOW POPS WARRANTED IN THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE BEST FORCING. FEW BREEZY SPOTS
BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AREN'T EXCITED
ABOUT MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR GUIDANCE AND NOTICEABLY
COOLER FOR SATURDAY, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY/MONDAY, UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST EVENTUALLY EJECTS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT WITH LESSER SCOPE. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF IT LOOKS DECENT, BUT QG-FORCING/FRONTOGENESIS FOCUSES
EAST/SOUTH OF THE CWA FOR BETTER QPF CHANCES. TEMPERATURES SLIDE
BACK TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND SYSTEM AND
CLOUD COVER CONSPIRE.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE SEASONALLY COOL, BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS WEAK DISTURBANCES SLIP THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER MEAN UPPER SPLIT-FLOW REGIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE
TONIGHT...THEN TAPERING OFF BY SUNRISE. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...HELGESON
AVIATION...13
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