879
FXUS63 KUNR 151132
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
432 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
09Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS BROAD TROF CROSSING SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
CROSSING NORTHWESTERN SD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SD, WITH CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SOON TO FOLLOW. TEMPERATURES AT 2PM ARE IN THE 30S
AND 40S, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT BACK TO RIDGING THIS WEEKEND AS
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LATE SUNDAY, AN UPPER TROF/WEAK CLOSED LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST UPPER
DYNAMICS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL
TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN. BEST AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE FROM THE BLACK
HILLS SOUTH AND EAST, WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF MOISTURE.
AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WARM, AND ANY POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS.
WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK. WEAK ENERGY IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES, BRINGING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MOST
OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...15
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