711
FXUS63 KUNR 052119
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
219 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW RETURN SATURDAY/SUNDAY.
- WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SURFACE CHART DEPICTS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MT DOWN INTO SOUTHEASTERN SD.
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SIT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH LIGHT
TO BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. RADAR SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SPOTTY
RETURNS RUNNING SOUTHEAST ALONG OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH
WEBCAMS SHOW NOTHING COMING DOWN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING,
BRINGING IN A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE.
ISENTROPIC FORCING WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SD, THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. NORTHERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE LOW WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR AND WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR PRECIP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FORCING AND
AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERN SD AND THE
ENHANCED UPSLOPE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS REGIONS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SD PLAINS COULD SEE 1-3
INCHES, WHILE THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS SEEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE. MINOR IMPACTS IN THE HILLS MAYBE
POSSIBLE, HOWEVER LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HEADLINE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC
STRENGTHENS, PROMOTING WEAK RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY. WARMEST DAY OF
NEXT WEEK WILL BE TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 40S
OVER NORTHWESTERN SD, TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR I-90 AND SOUTH. THERE
IS SOME MODEL DIVERGENCE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MST FRI DEC 5 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD -SHSN WILL END EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH
AREAS OF MVFR DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...DYE
AVIATION...SMITH
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