797
FXUS63 KUNR 081703
AFDUNR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1003 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MORNING SNOW SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN BLACK HILLS.
OTHERWISE DRY, MILD, AND BREEZY TODAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.
- TURNING COLDER AND UNSETTLED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
WEEK. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED EASTWARD INTO EASTERN SD. SURFACE
LOW IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF EASTERN MT, WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE IN SE MT ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH...KUDX RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF SNOW OVER NE WY JUST NOW
APPROACHING THE WESTERN SD BORDER. THIS SNOW IS MAINLY EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS AREA AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AND
WILL END LATER IN THE MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS WHERE TEMPS ARE BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S. AS THE SURFACE LOW SINKS INTO ND LATER THIS MORNING, AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH. CAN'T RULE OUT A GUST OR TWO REACHING 50
MPH BUT WON'T BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY. A
STRONG WAVE WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS ON TUESDAY, WITH A STRONGER SURFACE LOW ON A SIMILAR
TRACK TO TODAY'S. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS OVER 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH. WILL INCLUDE THE REST OF THE SD PLAINS IN THE
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FALL RIVER COUNTY EASTWARD ALONG THE NEBRASKA
BORDER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHICH, WITH THE ADDITION OF STRONG CAA,
SHOULD KEEP STRONG WINDS OVER THE CWA AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, PERHAPS BECOMING SNOW POST-FRONTAL IN
THE EVENING. MODELS SOLUTION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
CONTINUE TO DIFFER. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT THE GFS CONTINUES
TO SHOW SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CWA WHILE THE ECM IS
GENERALLY LESS THAN THREE. WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 959 AM MST MON DEC 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WNW SURFACE
WINDS OF 12 TO 22 KTS AND GUST OF 35 TO 40 KT WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH 00Z WITH WINDS DECREASING SOME OVERNIGHT. STRONG WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 50KTS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-046-047-049-
072>078.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
WYZ060.
DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...13
AVIATION...SMITH
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